Estimating nest-switching in free-ranging wild birds: an assessment of the most common methodologies, illustrated in the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

Reliable estimates of nest-switching are required to study avian mating systems and manage wild populations, yet different estimation methods have rarely been integrated or assessed. Through a literature review and case study, we reveal that three common methods for assessing nest-switching blend different components, producing a wide range of estimates. Careful component definition and reporting are essential to properly estimate this behaviour

Adaptive divergence across Southern Ocean gradients in the pelagic diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis

The Southern Ocean is characterized by longitudinal water circulations crossed by strong latitudinal gradients. How this oceanographic background shapes planktonic populations is largely unknown, despite the significance of this region for global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show, based on genomic, morphometric, ecophysiological and mating compatibility data, an example of ecotypic differentiation and speciation within an endemic pelagic inhabitant, the diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis. We discovered three genotypic variants, one present throughout the latitudinal transect sampled, the others restricted to the north and south, respectively. The latter two showed reciprocal monophyly across all three genomes and significant ecophysiological differences consistent with local adaptation, but produced viable offspring in laboratory crosses. The third group was also reproductively isolated from the latter two. We hypothesize that this pattern originated by an adaptive expansion accompanied by ecotypic divergence, followed by sympatric speciation

Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research - exploring new avenues to address spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics

Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of ‘movement ecology’. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide ‘mobile links’ between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through ‘equalizing’ and ‘stabilizing’ mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels

Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual-based model

Aim To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individual-based population dynamics. Location Sweden. Methods We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual-based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species' ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced "super-reporters." In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the benchmark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporting of individual species and the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by systematic monitoring schemes

Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

1. Global policy for future biodiversity conservation is ultimately implemented at landscape and local scales. In parallel, green infrastructure planning needs to account for socioeconomic dynamics at national and global scales. Progress to-wards policy goals must, in turn, be evaluated at the landscape scale. Evaluation tools are often environmental quality indicators. How developments of different organism groups will relate to developments of these indicators is unclear.2. We evaluated three management scenarios for a 100,000 hectare boreal for-est landscape in the coming 100 years in terms of their effects on the future habitat suitability/occupancy of four bird species, six wood-decaying fungi and one lichen, most of them red- listed. The scenarios optimize financial returns and account for downscaled projected global demand of wood given a middle-of- the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). We contrast a reference scenario meeting the wood demand against an economy scenario with no upper harvest limit, and a green infrastructure scenario optimizing the levels of environmental indicators.3. Environmental indicators generally reached the highest and lowest levels in the green infrastructure and economy scenarios, respectively. Most indicators in-creased further in set-asides. The profit was 14% lower in the green infrastructureand 2% higher in the economy than in the reference scenario.4. In the green infrastructure scenario, the species increased on average by 135%, followed by the reference scenario (+65%), and the economy scenario (+47%). All bird species increased in the green infrastructure scenario, while in the other scenarios, only hazel grouse increased and Siberian tit instead decreased. Most fungi increased in the production forest of the green infrastructure scenario but decreased in the economy scenario. All increased in set-asides. In all scenarios, the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria increased, owing to host tree retention.5. Synthesis and applications. Effects of global socioeconomic developments can be downscaled and accounted for in planning landscape-scale forest andconservation management. Accounting for indicators of environmental quality identified forest management scenarios for reaching targets on both revenue and conservation. Rebuilding green infrastructure in the production forest was possible at a relatively minor economic cost and to the benefit of species of con-servation concern. conservation, downscaling, environmental indicators, forestry, GLOBIOM, green infrastructure, land-use scenario, socioeconomic pathwaypublishedVersio

Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand

1. Global policy for future biodiversity conservation is ultimately implemented at landscape and local scales. In parallel, green infrastructure planning needs to account for socioeconomic dynamics at national and global scales. Progress to-wards policy goals must, in turn, be evaluated at the landscape scale. Evaluation tools are often environmental quality indicators. How developments of different organism groups will relate to developments of these indicators is unclear.2. We evaluated three management scenarios for a 100,000 hectare boreal for-est landscape in the coming 100 years in terms of their effects on the future habitat suitability/occupancy of four bird species, six wood-decaying fungi and one lichen, most of them red- listed. The scenarios optimize financial returns and account for downscaled projected global demand of wood given a middle-of- the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). We contrast a reference scenario meeting the wood demand against an economy scenario with no upper harvest limit, and a green infrastructure scenario optimizing the levels of environmental indicators.3. Environmental indicators generally reached the highest and lowest levels in the green infrastructure and economy scenarios, respectively. Most indicators in-creased further in set-asides. The profit was 14% lower in the green infrastructureand 2% higher in the economy than in the reference scenario.4. In the green infrastructure scenario, the species increased on average by 135%, followed by the reference scenario (+65%), and the economy scenario (+47%). All bird species increased in the green infrastructure scenario, while in the other scenarios, only hazel grouse increased and Siberian tit instead decreased. Most fungi increased in the production forest of the green infrastructure scenario but decreased in the economy scenario. All increased in set-asides. In all scenarios, the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria increased, owing to host tree retention.5. Synthesis and applications. Effects of global socioeconomic developments can be downscaled and accounted for in planning landscape-scale forest andconservation management. Accounting for indicators of environmental quality identified forest management scenarios for reaching targets on both revenue and conservation. Rebuilding green infrastructure in the production forest was possible at a relatively minor economic cost and to the benefit of species of con-servation concern. conservation, downscaling, environmental indicators, forestry, GLOBIOM, green infrastructure, land-use scenario, socioeconomic pathwa

Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual‐based model

Aim: To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individual-based population dynamics. Location: Sweden. Methods: We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual- based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results: Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species’ ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced “super-reporters.” In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the bench-mark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions: Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporting of individual species and the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by systematic monitoring schemes

Habitat suitability models based on opportunistic citizen science data: Evaluating forecasts from alternative methods versus an individual-based model

Aim: To evaluate the utility of opportunistic data from citizen science programmes for forecasting species distributions against forecasts with a model of individualbased population dynamics. Location: Sweden. Methods: We evaluated whether alternative methods for building habitat suitability models (HSMs) based on opportunistic data from citizen science programmes produced forecasts that were consistent with forecasts from two benchmark models: (1) a HSM based on data from systematic monitoring and (2) an individual-based model for spatially explicit population dynamics based on empirical demographic and movement data. We forecasted population numbers and habitat suitability for three realistic, future forest landscapes for a forest bird, the Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We ranked simulated forest landscapes with respect to their benefits to Siberian jays for each modelling method and compared the agreement of the rankings among methods. Results: Forecasts based on our two benchmark models were consistent with each other and with expectations based on the species’ ecology. Forecasts from logistic regression models based on opportunistic data were consistent with the benchmark models if species detections were combined with high-quality inferred absences derived via retrospective interviews with experienced “super-reporters.” In contrast, forecasts with three other widely used methods were inconsistent with the benchmark models, sometimes with misleading rankings of future scenarios. Main conclusions: Our critical evaluation of alternative HSMs against a spatially explicit IBM demonstrates that information on species absences critically improves forecasts of species distributions using opportunistic data from citizen science programmes. Moreover, high-quality information on species absences can be retrospectively inferred from surveys of the consistency of reporti the identification skills of participating reporters. We recommend that citizen science projects incorporate procedures to evaluate reporting behaviour. Inferred absences may be especially useful for improving forecasts for species and regions poorly covered by s ystematic monitoring schemes

Extra-pair paternity in the socially monogamous white stork (Ciconia ciconia) is fairly common and independent of local density

Although many birds are socially monogamous, most (>75%) studied species are not strictly genetically monogamous, especially under high breeding density. We used molecular tools to reevaluate the reproductive strategy of the socially monogamous white stork (Ciconia ciconia) and examined local density effects. DNA samples of nestlings (Germany, Spain) were genotyped and assigned relationships using a two-program maximum likelihood classification. Relationships were successfully classified in 79.2% of German (n = 120) and 84.8% of Spanish (n = 59) nests. For each population respectively, 76.8% (n = 73) and 66.0% (n = 33) of nests contained only full-siblings, 10.5% (n = 10) and 18.0% (n = 9) had half-siblings (at least one nestling with a different parent), 3.2% (n = 3) and 10.0% (n = 5) had unrelated nestlings (at least two nestlings, each with different parents), and 9.5% (n = 9) and 6.0% (n = 3) had "not full-siblings" (could not differentiate between latter two cases). These deviations from strict monogamy place the white stork in the 59(th) percentile for extra-pair paternity among studied bird species. Although high breeding density generally increases extra-pair paternity, we found no significant association with this species' mating strategies. Thus although genetic monogamy is indeed prominent in the white stork, extra-pair paternity is fairly common compared to other bird species and cannot be explained by breeding density.publishe

Early-life behaviour predicts first-year survival in a long-distance avian migrant

Early-life conditions have critical, long-lasting effects on the fate of individuals, yet early-life activity has rarely been linked to subsequent survival of animals in the wild. Using high-resolution GPS and body-acceleration data of 93 juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), we examined the links between behaviour during both pre-fledging and post-fledging (fledging-to-migration) periods and subsequent first-year survival. Juvenile daily activity (based on overall dynamic body acceleration) showed repeatable between-individual variation, the juveniles' pre- and post-fledging activity levels were correlated and both were positively associated with subsequent survival. Daily activity increased gradually throughout the post-fledging period, and the relationship between post-fledging activity and survival was stronger in individuals who increased their daily activity level faster (an interaction effect). We suggest that high activity profiles signified individuals with increased pre-migratory experience, higher individual quality and perhaps more proactive personality, which could underlie their superior survival rates. The duration of individuals' fledging-to-migration periods had a hump-shaped relationship with survival: higher survival was associated with intermediate rather than short or long durations. Short durations reflect lower pre-migratory experience, whereas very long ones were associated with slower increases in daily activity level which possibly reflects slow behavioural development. In accordance with previous studies, heavier nestlings and those that hatched and migrated earlier had increased survival. Using extensive tracking data, our study exposed new links between early-life attributes and survival, suggesting that early activity profiles in migrating birds can explain variation in first-year survival.publishe